Key Findings from the 2024 Annual Progress Report for Vermont

1. Climate disruption is here

Climate disruption is already causing significant harm and costs, both around the world and here in Vermont. Across the Northeastern U.S., extreme precipitation events have increased more than 60% over the last 60 years. In July 2023, Vermont experienced historic flooding that damaged more than 4,000 homes and 800 businesses and resulted in two deaths. Vermont was hit again with flooding in July 2024, causing two fatalities and damage to many more homes, businesses, farms, and roads. Starting with Tropical Storm Irene, Vermont has experienced a high number of increasingly devastating rainfall events in the past 13 years. Looking ahead, the latest National Climate Assessment projects that the amount of rain on the wettest days in Vermont would increase yet another 20% to 25% in the coming decades under a 2°C (3.6°F) warming scenario.

Vermont experienced the 7th highest number of federally declared climate disasters (20 total) of any state in the U.S. between 2011 and 2023, with the 5th highest per capita disaster costs ($684 per person), as measured in federal assistance dollars. Washington County, in particular, tied for the 2nd highest number of climate-related federal disaster declarations out of all counties in the U.S. But communities across the entire state have been increasingly impacted by climate disasters, and areas with higher levels of social vulnerability tend to have fewer resources to recover from these events.

In addition to flooding, many Vermont communities — from St. Johnsbury to Burlington — experienced their warmest winter ever recorded in 2023/24. Vermont was not an anomaly: globally, 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded. Higher temperatures continued into 2024. In fact, every month from June 2023 to August 2024 broke the record for the highest average global temperature for that month.

2. True resilience requires adaptation and mitigation

In the face of the devastating effects of increasing climate disruption, additional focus on resilience is vital. Climate resilience refers to the ability to prepare for, recover from, and adapt to the multitude of impacts of climate destabilization. However, there can be no durable resilience without mitigating (i.e. reducing) the pollution that is causing climate disruption in the first place. Thankfully, many pollution reduction strategies are simultaneously resilience or adaptation strategies, including weatherization, increased use of heat pumps, and battery storage.

Vermont is seeing a significant increase in extreme heat during summer months. Burlington, for example, has seen an average increase in extreme heat days of about 140% since 1960. Extreme heat can have serious health and safety impacts, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. In 2018, Vermont experienced a heat wave with six days straight reaching above 90°F, resulting in over 100 emergency department visits and four deaths (VT Department of Health, 2021). Those who died during the heat wave were primarily older Vermonters who lived alone in homes without air conditioning.

Heat pumps are an example of a solution with mitigation, adaptation, and resilience co-benefits. In addition to reducing reliance on fossil heating fuels during the colder months, the same heat pump can provide cooling in summer months. And, if flooding does occur, heat pumps don’t pose the health and safety risks of fossil fuel equipment, which can create hazardous waste spills in homes and leak into waterways.

3. Delaying action is costly

A question commonly heard is: how much will it cost to combat climate change? A question that is at least as important to ask is: what is the cost of inaction? Because when we don’t act, that is also a choice with real costs and consequences. As we have seen from recent flooding events, responding to climate change is and will be expensive. The choice we face now is whether to proactively pay for solutions that will reduce climate disruption, or wait and reactively pay ever-increasing costs when emergencies occur.

The Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (SC-GHG) helps us answer these questions in a comprehensive and evidence-based way.

The SC-GHG is “the monetary value of the net harm to society from emitting a metric ton of that GHG into the atmosphere in a given year” (U.S. EPA).

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimated the social cost of emitting one metric ton of CO2 in 2020 at $190. This means that when a Vermont driver switches from gasoline to electric, over the life of the vehicle they avoid causing more than $7,000 in costs and damages to society from the car’s climate pollution, in addition to individual savings of more than $9,500 on fuel and maintenance. When scaled up, if Vermont meets our Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) obligations, we will avoid 100 million metric tons of GHG emissions, preventing more than $25 billion in societal costs and damages.

Delaying climate action ends up being most costly to the most vulnerable — both here in Vermont and around the world. Vermonters with lower incomes are more likely to live in a floodplain or lack access to cooling. Globally, it is poor people and marginalized communities who are most exposed to the impacts of climate destabilization, from sea level rise to intensifying drought. The question we face is how large the costs of inaction will grow to be — and for whom — if we continue to delay necessary investments in a clean energy transition.

 

4. Getting off fossil fuels benefits Vermont’s economy, health, and more

 

Reducing climate pollution in Vermont is an opportunity that presents many social, environmental, and economic benefits — from saving money to strengthening our economy to improving public health.

At the household level, transitioning away from fossil fuels to efficient electric options for space heating, water heating, and transportation can result in significant cost savings each year. Although each home will be different, beneficial electrification has the potential to reduce household energy expenditures by a third, or even more. For example, a single-family household could save more than $2,000 per year in energy costs by switching away from propane heat and a gas powered vehicle to efficient electric alternatives.

However, households must be prepared for changes in billing and payment after electrification. A typical Vermont household might be used to paying for gasoline weekly or biweekly, and for heating fuel (propane or fuel oil) three or four times per winter. After replacing their gasoline car with an electric car, and their propane or oil heating system with a cold-climate heat pump, all of the household’s energy expenses will now appear on their monthly electric bill. While the electric bill will go up, overall costs across all energy bills will be lower.

Fossil fuels are high-cost, price-volatile, and 100% imported — leaving Vermonters subject to unpredictable global commodity markets. For example, fuel oil prices spiked to $5.48/gallon in November 2022, more than $2.00/gallon higher than in November 2021. In contrast, investments in heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, advanced wood heating, and electric vehicles can provide lower and more stable prices.

Beneficial electrification can also support the statewide economy by re-localizing our energy dollars. Fossil fuels create a significant drain on the state’s economy, with 75% of the dollars we spend on them leaving the state. This amounted to a $1.7 billion drain on Vermont’s $43 billion economy in 2023. In contrast, spending our energy dollars on electricity essentially flips that ratio, keeping more of our energy dollars in Vermont while supporting local jobs.

Reducing climate pollution through electrification also provides health benefits. In addition to producing GHG emissions, fossil fuel combustion emits other harmful air pollutants, including nitrogen oxides (NOx), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and carbon monoxide (CO). Moving beyond fossil fuels for transportation, heating, lawn maintenance, and other appliances can reduce indoor and outdoor air pollution. Weatherization can also improve air quality and make homes more safe and comfortable. Together these solutions improve the air we breathe, both in and outside the home, while also reducing our climate impact.

In sum, moving away from fossil fuels is a win-win-win opportunity, helping preserve the things we love for generations to come.

Federal Funding Makes Climate Solutions More Affordable

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 directed nearly $400 billion in federal funding to climate and energy initiatives. This included funding for expanded tax credits and rebates for decarbonization solutions, including heat pumps, electric vehicles, rooftop solar, and more. These federal incentives can be combined with state and utility incentives to make clean energy solutions more affordable. Already, Vermonters have been twice as likely as residents of other states to take advantage of IRA tax credits, with the 3rd highest rate of uptake of IRA efficiency tax credits in the nation.

Visit homes.rewiringamerica.org/calculator to learn more about available incentives.

5. Vermont is often a leader, but not always

Vermont has a history of innovation and leadership in energy efficiency, clean energy, and climate action. At the same time, we are currently lagging on many key measures of climate leadership and energy progress compared to other states.

For each of the measures where we lag, the primary problem is the same: Vermont’s disproportionate use of highly polluting, high-cost fossil fuels and a corresponding lack of regulatory and policy action.

 

6. Progress requires policy

Vermont is not currently on track to meet our emissions reduction obligations. This is not because we don’t have the available technology — it’s primarily because we are failing to utilize the evidence-based policy and regulatory solutions available to us and that are recommended in Vermont’s Climate Action Plan.

The existing economic dominance of fossil fuels in Vermont and beyond requires policy and regulation to intentionally transform markets — especially if we are to create an energy transition that is just and equitable. While incentives are necessary to help encourage change, they are insufficient on their own. Comprehensive policies and targeted regulations are also necessary to ensure the scale and pace of progress that science indicates is needed for Vermont to do our part to reduce the climate pollution we are responsible for.

The places that are making the most climate progress are taking a comprehensive approach, including three key elements:

  • Performance standards for energy equipment and importers of fossil fuels
  • Caps on emissions from the highest polluting sectors
  • Investments in equity-focused, pollution-reducing programs and incentives

Vermont has not fully utilized performance standards for equipment and importers of fossil fuels. And, unlike Quebec, California, Washington, Oregon, and New York, Vermont has yet to establish or commit to a cap on emissions from our most polluting sectors. While Vermont has successfully made some investments in equity-focused incentives, that is only one leg of the stool. Without the other two legs, we have little chance to achieve our climate commitments and energy goals.