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Assessing the Impact of Recent Fossil Fuel Price Increases on Vermonters

June 12, 2026

Many Vermonters are asking: how are the fossil fuel price spikes resulting from the Iran war affecting Vermont, both at the consumer and statewide levels? Here is EAN’s analysis for the three months from March through May 2026, specifically related to gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil costs in Vermont. 

Key Takeaways:

• Price increases for gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil added $124 million in estimated costs in Vermont from March through May (from about $370 million to $494 million).
• Gasoline prices were nearly 50% higher at the end of May ($4.47/gal) compared to pre-war prices ($3.00/gal). These price spikes have added more than $75 a month in costs for the average Vermont driver.
• Fuel oil prices were $1.11 per gallon higher in May than at the end of February. This means that the cost of a 200 gallon fuel delivery was over $200 higher, from about $800 pre-war to over $1,000 in April and May.

Consumer level – How are fuel price increases affecting Vermonters at the pump? 

On Feb. 28th, the average price of gasoline in Vermont was $3.00/gallon. As of May 31st, it was $4.47/gallon – a  nearly 50% increase. These price spikes have increased the cost of gasoline for the average Vermont driver by more than $75 a month, to about $240.

Given constantly shifting gasoline prices, a helpful shorthand is that for every additional 50 cents per gallon price increase, costs increase about $27 per month or $320 per year for an average driver. When gasoline prices are one dollar and fifty cents per gallon higher, Vermont drivers experience an average cost increase of almost $80 per month, or almost $960 per year.

However, these numbers are just for average drivers in Vermont. Gasoline costs can vary significantly based on miles driven and the fuel efficiency of vehicles. For instance, when gasoline prices are a dollar per gallon higher, an average driver of a pickup truck pays about $59 more per month or $712 more per year. In contrast, an average driver of a fuel efficient hybrid only pays $24 more per month, or $287 more per year from the same dollar per gallon increase. For someone who drives twice as many miles as the average, each of these estimated monthly costs double.

Transportation fuel costs for electric vehicle drivers in Vermont are not affected by rising gasoline prices and have remained relatively low and stable by comparison.

Consumer level – How are fuel oil price increases affecting Vermonters?

Fuel oil is the most commonly used residential heating fuel in Vermont (EAN). Retail prices for fuel oil were about $1.11/ gallon higher in May than they were pre-war, rising from $3.98/ gallon at the end of February to an average of $5.09/gallon in May (PSD) – a 28% increase.

Magnifying the challenge of this heating fuel price spike, the 2025/2026 heating season was about 4.2% colder than normal, as measured by heating degree days (NOAA).¹ This led many Vermonters to need more heating oil than planned. Having fully used up gallons bought at the beginning of the heating season, many households needed unplanned late season deliveries at very high fuel oil prices. A 200 gallon delivery of fuel oil cost an average of $316 more on March 31st than it did on March 1st ($1,112 vs. $796). 

Given constantly shifting fuel oil prices, a helpful shorthand is that for every additional dollar per gallon, fuel oil costs increase by about $700 per year for an average Vermont home during an average Vermont winter. Of course, total cost increases can be higher or lower than these averages, depending on many variables, including but not limited to: the size of one’s home; how well weatherized one’s home is; the efficiency of one’s heating system; the indoor temperature one desires; how cold of a winter we experience; and when/at what price one purchases fuel oil.

Statewide – How much have recent fossil fuel price increases cost Vermonters?

Fossil fuel price increases since the start of war in Iran added $124 million in estimated costs for Vermont drivers and fuel oil customers from March through May above what would have been the case had prices for those fuels held at their pre-war levels.² Specifically, we estimate an increase in total statewide costs for gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil from $370 million to $494 million for March through May, compared to what those costs would have been at end of February prices. This is $124 million that could have otherwise been spent on necessities like food, housing, and medicine/ health care for Vermont residents. For Vermont businesses, these extra costs drove up their cost of doing business, eating into profit margins and/or forcing them to increase prices on customers to make up for higher fuel expenses. 

Broken out by fuel, the $124 million cost increase from March through May comes out to an estimated $77.6 million from extra statewide gasoline costs; $23.6 million from extra statewide diesel costs; and $22.8 million from extra statewide fuel oil costs.

Statewide – How much have recent gasoline price increases cost Vermont drivers? 

Before the war in Iran began on February 28th, statewide average gasoline prices in Vermont were about $3.00/gallon and had been right around that price for most of February. After the war in Iran began, gasoline prices in Vermont rose rapidly – prices increased by an average of 3 cents per day in March. Prices remained consistently high in April and May, and were $4.47/gallon on May 31st (Gasbuddy.com).

Total gasoline costs in Vermont were over $77.6 million higher from March through May than they would have been if gasoline prices had stayed at their end of February level. Specifically, if gasoline prices had held steady at their pre-war price of $3.00/gallon, projected gasoline expenditures in Vermont from March through May would have been just under $216 million (assuming average daily gasoline consumption from 2025). Instead, over $293 million is projected to have been spent, with statewide average prices of $4.08/gallon during this period. 

A helpful shorthand is that for every extra 50 cents per gallon for gasoline, Vermont drivers pay about $2.8 million in increased costs per week, or about $12 million per month (again, assuming 2025’s average weekly and monthly statewide gasoline consumption). 

Over a full year, gasoline at $4.50/gallon rather than $3.00/gallon would translate to an increase in annual statewide gasoline costs of about $431 million.

Statewide – How much have recent diesel price increases cost Vermonters? 

Before the war in Iran began on February 28, statewide average diesel prices in Vermont were about $4.14/ gallon, and had been right around that price for most of February. After the war in Iran began, diesel prices in Vermont rose rapidly, up to $5.76/gallon on March 31st (an average increase of over 5 cents per gallon per day in March), and remained at these elevated levels through the next two months, ending May at $5.66/gal. (Gasbuddy.com)

Total diesel costs in Vermont were about $23.5 million higher from March through May than they would have been if prices had held at their end of February level. Specifically, if diesel prices had held steady at their pre-war price of $4.14/gallon, projected diesel expenditures in Vermont for March would have been $67.7 million (assuming average daily diesel consumption from 2025). Instead, $91.2 million is projected to have been spent, accounting for diesel prices through May 31st at a 3-month statewide average of $5.58/gallon. 

A helpful shorthand is that for every extra dollar per gallon for diesel, consumers in Vermont pay about $5.4 million in increased costs per month (again, assuming 2025’s average monthly statewide diesel consumption). 

Over a full year, diesel at $5.50/gallon rather than $4.00/gallon would translate to an increase in annual statewide diesel costs of about $98 million.

Statewide – How much have recent fuel oil price increases cost Vermonters? 

Before the war in Iran began at the end of February, statewide average fuel oil prices in Vermont were about $3.98/gallon. After the war in Iran began, fuel oil prices in Vermont rose rapidly, up to $5.56/gallon as of March 31st (EIA). Fuel oil prices averaged $5.01/gallon in April and $5.09/gallon in May (PSD).

Total fuel oil costs in Vermont are estimated to have been about $22.8 million higher for March through May than they would have been if fuel oil prices had held at their end of February level. Specifically, if fuel oil prices had held steady at their pre-war price of $3.98/gallon, projected fuel oil expenditures in Vermont for March though May would have been $86.7 million (assuming average monthly consumption from 2025 for those months, adjusted by the difference in heating degree days between those months in 2025 and 2026). Instead, $109.5 million is projected to have been spent, accounting for fuel oil prices over the last three months. 

A helpful shorthand is that for every extra dollar per gallon for fuel oil, Vermonters pay an average of about $10.5 million in increased costs per month during the core heating season period of October – April (assuming 2024/2025 fuel oil consumption levels).

Over a full year, fuel oil at $5.00/gallon rather than $4.00/gallon would translate to an increase in annual statewide fuel oil costs of about $89 million.

Conclusion 

Unfortunately, the costs to Vermont of continued fossil fuel dependence and exposure to fossil fuel price volatility are not new. About 80% of total average household energy costs in Vermont come from the use of fossil fuels for transportation and heating, creating a large energy cost burden for households. 

Over the years, EAN’s research has identified five key features of fossil fuels. They are expensive; price-volatile; drain money out of the Vermont economy; heavily polluting, and inefficient. 

In contrast – and specifically with regard to transportation – electric vehicles cost less to drive. This is a combined result of the far greater efficiency of EVs; lower and more stable electricity costs; and lower maintenance costs for EVs, as compared to fossil fuels and fossil fueled vehicles. EVs also keep far more energy dollars staying and recirculating in Vermont – doing more to invest in Vermont and Vermont jobs – while also creating seven times less climate pollution than gasoline vehicles over their lifetime. When possible, carpooling, using public transportation, and other transportation alternatives can also help mitigate the impact of gasoline price increases. 

With regard to heating fuel costs, fuel oil is especially expensive and price volatile. It also drains a higher share of heating dollars out of state than any other heating fuel. Ways to reduce heating costs over time that are available statewide can include weatherization, and – when possible – transitioning to heat pump and/or advanced wood heating equipment. For customers in VGS territory, fossil gas has historically cost far less as a heating fuel than fuel oil or propane. For more information on incentives for weatherization and more efficient heating options, visit efficiencyvermont.com.

Data notes: 

• In 2025, just under 300 million gallons (287,738,483) of gasoline were purchased in Vermont (JFO). That’s an average of just over 5.5 million gallons per week.
• Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita for Vermont is 11,209 (FHWA, 2024). 
• The latest data we have for the average fuel efficiency of vehicles registered in Vermont is 23.4 miles per gallon (MPG) (VTrans, 2021). 
• Approximately three in four Vermonters have drivers licenses, for a Vermont license per capita ratio of 0.75 (VTrans, 2021).
• The average Vermont driver is estimated to use approximately 638 gallons of gasoline/year or 53 gallons/month. 
• Costs for a gasoline pickup truck were calculated for a 2025 Ford F-150 that gets 21 MPG. Costs for a fuel efficient hybrid were calculated for a 2025 Toyota Prius that gets 52 MPG. Costs for an electric pickup truck were calculated for a 2025 F-150 Lightning that gets 68 Miles Per Gallon equivalent (MPGe). Costs for an electric vehicle were calculated for a 2025 Nissan Leaf that gets 111 MPGe. All examples are calculated at the average annual VMT for Vermont. 
• The average residential heating load for a Vermont home is 82.8 MMBtu (Efficiency Vermont “Technical Reference Manual (TRM), Program Year 2024”)
• The average fuel oil boiler or furnace efficiency is assumed to be 84.5% (Efficiency Vermont “Technical Reference Manual (TRM), Program Year 2024”)
• In 2025, 65.4 million gallons of diesel were purchased in Vermont (JFO). That’s an average of 5.4 million gallons per month.
• In 2025, 89.12 million gallons of fuel oil were purchased in Vermont (Vermont Department of Taxes). That’s an average of 7.42 million gallons per month.
• From March through May 2025, Vermont experienced 1,937 HDDs. From March through May 2026, Vermont experienced 2,010 HDDs – a 3.7% increase (NOAA).

Footnotes:

1. Heating degree days (HDD) are a measure of how much heating is needed per day. HDD is measured by calculating the difference between a baseline temperature (65 degrees Fahrenheit) and the average daily temperature for each day. If a day’s average daily temperature is above 65 degrees F, the HDD value is zero. Totaled over a heating season, HDD’s allow us to compare the relative temperatures and heating needs of different winters. 

2. This figure only accounts for the fossil fuels that are both both most widely used and have experienced the most price volatility: gasoline and diesel used for transportation and fuel oil used for space heating – it does not include kerosene, propane, fossil gas, or jet fuel.