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Assessing the Impact of Recent Gasoline Price Increases on Vermonters

March 20, 2026 Update

For a more updated and expanded version of this analysis, please see our April 6 update here.

Many Vermonters are asking: how is the fossil fuel price spike that began with the onset of war in Iran affecting Vermont, both at a consumer level and statewide? Here is EAN’s analysis as of March 20th, specifically related to gasoline prices and costs in Vermont. 

Consumer level – How are fuel price increases affecting Vermonters at the pump? 

Before the war in Iran began, gasoline prices in Vermont were at $3.00/gallon, resulting in just under $160 in gasoline costs a month for the average Vermont driver.

However, that monthly cost has increased by more than $40, to about $200 per month, as of the March 20th average price of $3.78 per gallon.  The monthly cost will go even higher if gasoline prices continue to rise, as they have so far every day in March.

Given constantly shifting gasoline prices, a helpful shorthand is that for every additional 50 cents per gallon increase, costs increase about $27 per month or $320 per year for an average driver.

If gasoline prices increased by an average of one dollar per gallon, Vermont drivers would experience an average cost increase of $53 per month or about $640 per year.

However, these numbers are just for average drivers in Vermont. Gasoline costs can vary significantly based on miles driven and the fuel efficiency of vehicles. For instance, if gasoline prices averaged a dollar per gallon higher, an average driver of a pickup truck would pay about $61 more per month or $729 more per year.  In contrast, the cost increase for an average driver of a fuel efficient hybrid would be only about $24 per month or $285 per year from the same dollar per gallon increase. And for someone who drives twice as many miles as the average, each of these estimated monthly costs double.

Transportation fuel costs for electric vehicle drivers in Vermont are not affected by rising gasoline prices and have remained relatively low and stable by comparison.

Statewide – How much have recent gasoline price increases cost Vermont drivers? 

In 2025, just under 300 million gallons (287,738,483) of gasoline were purchased in Vermont (JFO). That’s an average of just over 5.5 million gallons per week.

Before the war in Iran began on February 28, statewide average gasoline prices in Vermont were about $3.00 per gallon, and had been right around that price for most of February. Since the war in Iran began, gasoline prices in Vermont have risen rapidly, up to $3.78 on March 20th (an average increase of 4 cents per day so far in March) and averaging $3.44 between March 1st – 20th. (Gasbuddy.com)

Total gasoline costs in Vermont have been over $7 million higher in the first three weeks of March than would have been the case had gasoline prices held at their end of February level. If gasoline prices had held steady at their pre-war price of $3.00/gallon, projected gasoline expenditures in Vermont from March 1st – 20th would have been $47.1 million (assuming average daily gasoline consumption from 2025). Instead, nearly $54.1 million is projected to have been spent, accounting for gasoline prices through March 20th at a statewide average of $3.44/gallon. 

A helpful shorthand is that for every extra 50 cents per gallon for gasoline, statewide that creates about $2.8 million in increased costs per week, or about $12 million in increased costs per month (again, assuming 2025’s average weekly and monthly statewide gasoline consumption). 

Over a full year, gasoline at $3.50/gallon instead of $3.00/gallon would translate to an increase in annual statewide gasoline costs of about $143 million. Over a full year, gasoline at $4.00/gallon rather than $3.00/gallon would translate to an increase in annual statewide gasoline costs of about $287 million. 

Unfortunately, the costs to Vermont of continued fossil fuel dependence and exposure to fossil fuel price volatility are not new. About 80% of total average household energy costs in Vermont come from the use of fossil fuels for transportation and heating, creating a large energy cost burden for households. 

Over the years, EAN’s research has identified five key features of fossil fuels. They are expensive; price-volatile (as shown in the graph above); drain money out of the Vermont economy; heavily polluting, and inefficient. In contrast – and with regard to transportation – electric vehicles are less expensive to drive. This is a combined result of the far greater efficiency of EVs; lower and more stable electricity costs; and lower maintenance costs, as compared to fossil fuels and fossil fueled vehicles. EVs also keep far more energy dollars staying and recirculating in Vermont – doing more to invest in Vermont and Vermont jobs – while also creating seven times less climate pollution than gasoline vehicles over their lifetime. When possible, carpooling, using public transportation, and other transportation alternatives can also help mitigate the impact of gasoline price increases.

Data notes: 

• The latest data we have for the average fuel efficiency of vehicles registered in Vermont is 23.4 miles per gallon (MPG) (VTrans, 2021). 
• Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita for Vermont is 11,209 (FHWA, 2024). 
• Approximately three in four Vermonters have drivers licenses, for a Vermont license per capita ratio of .75 (VTrans, 2021).
• The average Vermont driver is estimated to use approximately 632 gallons of gasoline/year or 53 gallons/month. 
• Costs for a pickup truck were calculated for a 2026 Ford F-150 that gets 20.5 MPG. Costs for a fuel efficient hybrid were calculated for a 2026 Toyota Prius that gets 52 MPG.  Both examples are calculated at the average VT miles traveled. 
• Costs for an electric vehicle were based on a 2023 Chevy Bolt.