Blog
5 Key insights from the latest Vermont Energy Dashboard update
December 19, 2024
The two largest sources of climate pollution in Vermont come from how we get around and how we heat our homes and businesses. As of the latest data from Vermont’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory, published annually by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, the transportation sector was responsible for 39% of total GHG emissions in 2021, with the thermal/buildings sector following closely behind, at 31% of the total. Reducing fossil fuel use in these key sectors will be central to achieving climate pollution reduction obligations under Vermont’s Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA).
The state’s 2021 Climate Action Plan identified the highest-impact strategies to decarbonize the transportation and thermal sectors, including:
- Thermal electrification via adoption of efficient, electric heat pump technology for space and water heating
- Transportation electrification via adoption of electric vehicles (EVs)
- Improved thermal efficiency and comprehensive home weatherization
As of the end of 2023, nearly 60,000 cold-climate heat pumps and nearly 20,000 heat pump water heaters had been installed in Vermont homes, almost 40,000 homes had been weatherized, and more than 12,000 electric vehicles were on the road. While we still have a long way to go, this progress is encouraging and highlights the impact of investments that have been made at the federal, state, and local levels.
The Vermont Energy Dashboard tracks progress toward accelerating adoption of these key climate solutions, and was recently updated with data through 2023. Let’s take a look at some of the key takeaways from the latest data.
1. Adoption of pollution-reducing technologies is continuing to grow, but some technologies are seeing higher rates of adoption than others.
Since 2015, the annual rate of new cold-climate heat pumps (CCHPs) installations in Vermont has accelerated each year, reflecting growing demand for the technology. In 2023, more than 10,000 heat pumps were installed in Vermont homes, compared to just under 3,000 in 2016. This increase has been driven by growing customer and contractor awareness and advancements in heat pump technology, as well as the availability of federal, state, and utility incentives to bring down upfront costs.
Similarly, the rate of adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has ramped up in recent years. 2023 saw the largest year-over-year increase in EV registrations to date, with nearly 3,800 new EV registrations (compared to just over 2,200 the previous year). However, even with the progress in the last several years, EVs still represent only about 2% of the total light-duty vehicle fleet in Vermont.
When it comes to heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) and weatherization, the data tell a different story. For both measures, growth has remained relatively stable over the last several years. Vermont has seen about 2,000 new installations of HPWHs per year since 2014, when data tracking began. Similarly, the annual number of weatherization projects completed statewide has remained at around 2,000 per year for more than a decade.
While Vermont is seeing positive progress on accelerating CCHP and electric vehicle adoption, the state will need to ramp up the rate of weatherization projects and HPWH installations to meet the targets laid out in the Climate Action Plan.
2. Continued funding and investment in workforce development are needed to maintain — and accelerate — progress on weatherization.
Weatherization can reduce energy costs for Vermont households, in addition to providing environmental and health benefits. Electrification of home heating is an especially effective climate solution in homes that have already been weatherized, making it a critical piece of the energy transition.
While the rate of weatherization projects is lagging, it is not for lack of demand. Workforce constraints represent a key challenge to implementing climate solutions at scale, especially when it comes to weatherization. Statewide, weatherization providers are struggling to attract and retain enough workers to meet demand, limiting the number of weatherization projects that can be completed each year.
Maintaining progress on weatherization also depends on the existence of a continued, long-term funding source. A significant share of the weatherization projects completed in Vermont each year are through the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), which provides free weatherization services to income-eligible households. In the last several years, the WAP has received several one-time infusions of federal funding from the American Rescue Plan Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. However, after these funds are expended, the programs face a significant funding gap that will need to be addressed through other sources.
Weatherization is critical to increasing energy affordability, as well as maximizing the climate benefits of electrification, and additional work is needed to address these workforce and funding challenges.
3. Electric vehicle demand is at an all-time high, but maintaining progress depends on continued federal and state investments.
The number of electric vehicles registered in Vermont — including all-electric vehicles (AEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) — nearly tripled between 2020 and 2023. As of the end of 2023, AEVs made up around 58% of the total.
Demand for EVs continues to grow, but with an uncertain future for federal and state funding, this progress could stall out. Earlier this fall, the Vermont Agency of Transportation announced thatfunding for state EV incentives had been depleted, putting the program on hold. Incentive programs have helped more than 5,000 low- and moderate-income Vermonters purchase new or used EVs since their inception (VTrans, 2024).
Continued investment in EV incentives and the build-out of charging infrastructure is needed to keep Vermont on a path toward more widespread, equitable transportation electrification.
4. Adoption of key measures is higher in some parts of the state than in others.
The data presented above show statewide trends, but how do the numbers vary across the state? The Vermont Energy Dashboard allows users to visualize the data at the county, town, and Regional Planning Commission (RPC) levels, generating valuable insights about which parts of the state are leading and which are lagging behind.
Adoption of cold-climate heat pumps and heat pump water heaters has historically been highest in western and central Vermont, particularly in Addison, Rutland, and Washington counties. As of 2023, Addison county had the highest concentration of cold-climate heat pumps (relative to the number of occupied housing units), whereas counties in the Northeast Kingdom have seen lower rates of adoption.
Washington, Addison, and Bennington counties had the highest concentration of HPWHs, although still fewer than 10% of homes in those counties have HPWHs.
Chittenden and Washington counties had the highest concentration of electric vehicles, likely due to more compact settlement patterns and access to charging and utility EV incentives. More than half of all EVs in the state are registered in Chittenden or Washington county.
5. Meeting the Climate Action Plan targets will require significantly scaling up adoption of these key measures.
Based on modeling completed for the 2021 Climate Action Plan, Vermont set statewide targets for adoption of cold-climate heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, weatherization, and EVs. The latest data show that, at the current pace of adoption, Vermont is not on track to meet these targets as of the end of 2023.
Vermont has made the most progress on cold-climate heat pump installations and home weatherization, relative to CAP targets. However, the current rate of weatherization projects (~2,000 per year) would only get us to around 53,000 in 2030, less than half of the 120,000 that are modeled to be needed.
To meet these targets, Vermont needs to rapidly scale adoption of these key measures through the next decade. While investments in education and incentives have led to notable progress over the last decade, additional policies and programs are needed to get us there.
Explore the Vermont Energy Dashboard here.