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What the latest fossil fuel sales data tell us about Vermont’s economy and emissions

April 29, 2025

For EAN’s latest research paper, Fossil Fuel Sales in Vermont: What the Latest Data Mean for the State Economy, Vermont Consumers, and GHG Emissions Reduction Commitments we analyzed fossil fuel sales data for 2017 through 2024 from the Vermont Department of Taxes. The research examines what the data mean for Vermonters’ energy costs and the state’s progress toward the emissions reduction requirements established by the 2020 Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA). 

Key findings related to affordability

• Over $2 billion was spent on fossil fuels in Vermont in 2024 – the third year in a row that statewide fossil fuel costs exceeded $2 billion.

• Vermont households spend an average of about $7,000 a year on energy, the significant majority of which is for fossil fuels for transportation and heating.

• Because of Vermont’s exposure to and dependence on price-volatile fossil fuels, Vermont experienced over a $1 billion increase in annual fossil fuel costs – or nearly $1,800 per Vermonter – comparing 2022 to 2020.

• A key opportunity to lower energy bills and provide greater price stability for Vermonters is by increasing access to and adoption of solutions that reduce or end dependence on fossil fuels. Efficient energy solutions that can significantly lower monthly and lifetime costs include weatherization, electric vehicles, heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, and advanced wood heating systems.

Key findings related to Vermont’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

• As of January 1, 2025, Vermont is estimated to have reduced statewide GHG emissions 16-21% below 2005 levels. Contributing to this progress, as of the end of 2024, Vermonters have registered nearly 18,000 electric vehicles, comprehensively weatherized over 40,000 homes, and installed over 20,000 heat pump water heaters and over 70,000 heat pump units.

• However, the science-based commitment made in the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) is a 26% reduction below 2005 levels by 2025. Vermont almost certainly did not meet the first emissions reduction deadline (January 1, 2025) of the GWSA.

• Vermont’s combined transportation and thermal sector GHG emissions in 2024 were likely 5.57 million metric tons. This is about 370,000 metric tons higher than emissions from those sectors would have needed to be to achieve their proportional sectoral targets in alignment with the first emissions reduction obligation of the GWSA.

• In order to make up for the excess emissions from the transportation and thermal sectors, we would need to see an approximately 29% reduction in GHG emissions across all other sectors between 2021 to 2024 – something which we lack either historical or recent data to suggest is plausible.

• Based on currently available data, we estimate that 2024 statewide GHG emissions in Vermont were likely between 7.75 – 8.29 MMTCO2e (or 8.02, ± 0.27 MMTCO2e). This translates to falling 18-39% short of Vermont’s first statewide emissions reduction legal obligation under the GWSA.

• These findings underscore that emissions reductions do not occur absent clear market signals in the form of concerted state policy, rules, and programs designed to cost-effectively and equitably cut climate pollution and energy costs.

• That Vermont almost certainly did not meet the first obligation of its GWSA is not because it was not possible to do so. Rather, it comes as a predictable result of Vermont not implementing policies, regulations, and programs to cost-effectively and equitably cut climate pollution in line with commitments made in state law.

Time is of the essence if we want to get on track – both in terms of seizing the opportunity to reduce costs to Vermonters by lessening dependence on high-cost and price-volatile fossil fuels, and in terms of meeting our responsibility to reduce climate pollution in line with science-based legal commitments.

Read the full research paper to learn more.